Turkey is in the grip of nationwide protests by doctors over surging violence and worsening economic conditions. The country is witnessing an unprecedented increase in doctors quitting to take jobs overseas, which as Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul, threatens one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s major achievements.
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The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies is warning of a burgeoning health crisis in Ukraine, which is likely to last longer than the conflict itself.

Francesco Rocca, president of the Red Cross Federation, recently visited Ukraine and Romania to see conditions in the region since Russia’s military invaded Ukraine five weeks ago.

He says no one in Ukraine is left unscathed by the ongoing conflict. He estimates 18 million people, or one-third of the population, will require humanitarian assistance. Additionally, he says about 6.5 million displaced people inside the country and more than 4 million refugees in neighboring countries will need international aid.

He expresses particular concern about what he sees as an emerging health crisis. He says millions of people no longer have access to medical care and treatment because of attacks against hospitals, ambulances, and medical personnel.

The World Health Organization says more than 70 health care facilities have been attacked. Some have been destroyed. At least 71 people have been killed and 37 injured.

Rocca says violence has discouraged many people from leaving the safety of their bunkers to seek health care.

“Many are also cut off from regular access to clean water, leaving them at an elevated risk of infectious diseases. People who are on the move are also at greater risk, as living conditions can be overly crowded and access to proper water and sanitation facilities lacking. Outbreaks of respiratory and water-borne diseases are highly likely.”

Federation President Rocca says Red Cross volunteers are working to rehabilitate and provide safe toilets and shower facilities. He says they are distributing water and hygiene supplies.

“Across the country, volunteers are providing first aid and psychosocial support, transporting people to hospital, helping to reunite families through the Red Cross hotline, and delivering humanitarian aid to bomb shelters, medical facilities, and temporary accommodations for those who are displaced.”

Rocca notes Red Cross volunteers themselves are affected by the conflict. Many, he says, have lost homes, communities, and loved ones. Despite their personal grief and the many dangers, he says they continue to do what they can to aid and comfort victims of this terrible war.

Since the beginning of the war on February 24, he says Red Cross volunteers have assisted more than 400,000 people across Ukraine.
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Plans for a European Union-China summit were already laid before Russia invaded Ukraine last month — although Beijing’s formal announcement it would attend only came this week. On the agenda are issues like climate change, trade and what the EU describes as “universal values.” But the Ukraine conflict tops it.

Eric Mamer, spokesman for the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, says:

“We consider that the duty or all countries in the U.N. is to work to stop this conflict, to get Putin’s troops to withdraw and to respect the territorial integrity and the sovereignty of Ukraine. This is a message which I think is addressed not just to China but to every country in the world that believes in the principles of the UN charter.”

China casts itself as a neutral party to the Ukraine conflict. While Beijing says it’s ‘grieved’ by the war, Chinese and Russian foreign ministers meeting this week reaffirmed their strategic ties.

These messages aren’t new. But they offer an awkward backdrop for Friday’s virtual summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Prime Minister Li Keqiang and top EU officials Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel.

“China and the EU want very different things out of this summit….”

Francesca Ghiretti is an EU-China analyst at German think-tank, the Mercator Institute for China Studies. She says China hopes the summit will offer insights into the EU’s more geopolitical nature, and its closer ties with Washington under the Biden administration.

She says the EU wants China to pressure Russia to end the war in Ukraine — or at least guarantee humanitarian corridors. Like the U.S., Europe also wants to ensure Beijing does not provide Moscow with military or economic support

“They want one thing that is common to both of them — and that one thing is keep the communication between Beijing and Brussels going.”

The EU and China are major trading partners but their ties have frayed over the years. Finalizing an investment pact between the two is on hold.

“The (EU) Commission decided in 2019 to deem China a systemic rival.”

Tara Varma who heads the Paris office for the European Council on Foreign Relations policy institute, says:

“It was not even about values, but it was the idea that our systems of governance were not compatible.”

More recently, China has blocked imports from EU member Lithuania for drawing closer to Taiwan. Earlier this month, Lithuania called for scrapping the summit, until Beijing indicates whether it stands with Russia or the West. Still, experts say the 27-member bloc is not in lock step on China.

Again, analyst Ghiretti:

“So both parties actually enter the summit knowing that there won’t be any deliverables, and they know that probably there will be no joint statement at the end of it.”

The summit’s biggest takeaway may be that the EU and China have agreed to keep talking.
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Georgia on Thursday denounced as “unacceptable” plans announced by pro-Moscow separatists in the breakaway South Ossetia region to hold a referendum on joining Russia.

South Ossetia was in the center of the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 after which the Kremlin recognized the territory — along with another separatist region, Abkhazia — as an independent state and stationed military bases there.

On Wednesday, South Ossetian separatist leader Anatoly Bibilov said the statelet would hold a referendum on joining Russia shortly after the April 10 “presidential election” there.

Georgian Foreign Minister David Zalkaliani said Thursday “it is unacceptable to speak of any referendums while the territory is occupied by Russia.”

“Such a referendum will have no legal force,” he told journalists. “The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that the Georgian region is occupied by Russia.”

Also on Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow hasn’t taken any “legal” steps on the matter.

“But at the same time, we are talking about people of South Osseita expressing their opinion and we treat it with respect,” Peskov told reporters.

Bibilov’s spokeswoman Dina Gassiyeva told Thursday Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency that the decision to hold the referendum was “linked with the window of opportunity that opened in the current situation”, referring to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Last week, Bibilov said that South Ossetia had sent troops to fight alongside the invading Russian troops in Ukraine, where thousands of people were killed and more than 10 million displaced.

In August 2008, Russia launched an assault against Georgia which was battling pro-Russian militia in South Ossetia, after they shelled Georgian villages.

The fighting ended after five days with a European Union-mediated ceasefire but claimed more than 700 lives and displaced tens of thousands of ethnic Georgians.
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Ukraine’s president said his country’s defense against the Russian invasion was at a “turning point” and again pressed the United States for more help, hours after the Kremlin’s forces reneged on a pledge to scale back some of their operations.

Russian bombardment of areas around Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv and intensified attacks elsewhere in the country further undermined hopes for progress toward ending the bloody conflict that has devolved into a war of attrition. Civilians trapped in besieged cities have shouldered some of the worst suffering, though both sides said Thursday they would attempt another evacuation from the port city of Mariupol.

Talks between Ukraine and Russia were set to resume Friday by video, according to the head of the Ukrainian delegation, David Arakhamia.

A delegation of Ukrainian lawmakers visited Washington on Wednesday to push for more U.S. assistance, saying their nation needs more military equipment, more financial help and tougher sanctions against Russia.

“We need to kick Russian soldiers off our land, and for that we need all, all possible weapons,” Ukrainian parliament member Anastasia Radina said at a news conference at the Ukrainian Embassy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made the case directly to U.S. President Joe Biden.

“If we really are fighting for freedom and in defense of democracy together, then we have a right to demand help in this difficult turning point. Tanks, aircraft, artillery systems. Freedom should be armed no worse than tyranny,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address to the nation, which he delivered standing in the dark outside the dimly lit presidential offices in Kyiv. He thanked the U.S. for an additional $500 million in aid that was announced Wednesday.

There seemed little faith that Russia and Ukraine will resolve the conflict soon, particularly after the Russian military’s about-face and its most recent attacks.

Russia said Tuesday that it would de-escalate operations near Kyiv and Chernihiv to “increase mutual trust and create conditions for further negotiations.” Zelenskyy and the West were skeptical. Soon after, Ukrainian officials reported that Russian shelling was hitting homes, stores, libraries and other civilian sites in or near those areas.

Britain’s Defense Ministry also confirmed “significant Russian shelling and missile strikes” around Chernihiv.

It said Thursday that “Russian forces continue to hold positions to the east and west of Kyiv despite the withdrawal of a limited number of units. Heavy fighting will likely take place in the suburbs of the city in coming days.”

Russian troops also stepped up their attacks on the Donbas region in the east and around the city of Izyum, which lies on a key route to the Donbas, after redeploying units from other areas, the Ukrainian side said.

Olexander Lomako, secretary of the Chernihiv city council, said the Russian announcement turned out to be “a complete lie.”

“At night they didn’t decrease, but vice versa increased the intensity of military action,” Lomako said.

A top British intelligence official said Thursday that demoralized Russian soldiers in Ukraine were refusing to carry out orders and sabotaging their own equipment and had accidentally shot down their own aircraft.

In a speech in the Australian capital Canberra, Jeremy Fleming, who heads the GCHQ electronic spy agency, said President Vladimir Putin had apparently “massively misjudged” the invasion, he said. Although Putin’s advisers appeared to be too afraid to tell the truth, the “extent of these misjudgments must be crystal clear to the regime,” he said.

U.S. intelligence officials have given similar assessments that Putin is being misinformed by advisers too scared to give honest evaluations.

Five weeks into the invasion that has left thousands dead, the number of Ukrainians fleeing the country topped a staggering 4 million, half of them children, according to the United Nations.

“I do not know if we can still believe the Russians,” Nikolay Nazarov, a refugee from Ukraine, said as he pushed his father’s wheelchair at a border crossing into Poland. “I think more escalation will occur in eastern Ukraine. That is why we cannot go back to Kharkiv.”

Zelenskyy said the continuing negotiations with Russia were only “words without specifics.” He said Ukraine was preparing for concentrated new strikes on the Donbas.

Zelenskyy also said he had recalled Ukraine’s ambassadors to Georgia and Morocco, suggesting they had not done enough to persuade those countries to support Ukraine and punish Russia for the invasion.

“With all due respect, if there won’t be weapons, won’t be sanctions, won’t be restrictions for Russian business, then please look for other work,” he said.

During talks Tuesday in Istanbul, the faint outlines of a possible peace agreement seemed to emerge when the Ukrainian delegation offered a framework under which the country would declare itself neutral — dropping its bid to join NATO, as Moscow has long demanded — in return for security guarantees from a group of other nations.

Top Russian officials responded positively, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saying Wednesday that Ukraine’s willingness to accept neutrality and look outside NATO for security represents “significant progress,” according to Russian news agencies.

But those statements were followed by attacks.

Oleksandr Pavliuk, head of the Kyiv region military administration, said Russian shells targeted residential areas and civilian infrastructure in the Bucha, Brovary and Vyshhorod regions around the capital.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said the military also targeted fuel depots in two towns in central Ukraine with air-launched long-range cruise missiles. Russian forces hit a Ukrainian special forces headquarters in the southern Mykolaiv region, he said, and two ammunition depots in the Donetsk region, in the Donbas.

In southern Ukraine, a Russian missile destroyed a fuel depot in Dnipro, the country’s fourth-largest city, regional officials said.

The U.S. said Russia had begun to reposition less than 20% of its troops that had been arrayed around Kyiv. Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said troops from there and some other zones began moving mostly to the north, and some went into neighboring Belarus. Kirby said it appeared Russia planned to resupply them and send them back into Ukraine, but it is not clear where.

The Ukrainian military said some Russian airborne units were believed to have withdrawn into Belarus.

Top Russian military officials say their main goal now is the “liberation” of the Donbas, the predominantly Russian-speaking industrial heartland where Moscow-backed separatists have been battling Ukrainian forces since 2014. Some analysts have suggested that the focus on the Donbas and the pledge to de-escalate may merely be an effort to put a positive spin on reality since Moscow’s ground forces have become bogged down and taken heavy losses.

The Russians also are expected to try to blockade Chernihiv.

Russian forces have already been blockading Mariupol, a key port in the south, for weeks. The city has seen some of the worst devastation of the war and many attempts to implement safe evacuation corridors have collapsed. Ukraine accused Russian forces last week of seizing bus drivers and rescue workers headed to Mariupol.

The Russian military said it committed to a localized cease-fire along the route from Mariupol to the Ukrainian-held city of Zaporizhzhia from Thursday morning.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that Ukraine was sending out 45 buses to collect people. She said the International Committee of the Red Cross was acting as an intermediary.

Similar evacuation efforts have been planned before and collapsed amid recriminations over fighting along the route.

Civilians who have managed to leave the city have typically done so using private cars, but the number of drivable vehicles left in Mariupol has dwindled and fuel stocks are low.

Russia has also operated its own evacuations from territory it has captured in Mariupol. Ukraine alleges Russia is sending its citizens to “filtration camps” in separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine and then forcibly taking people to Russia.

The U.N. is looking into those allegations.
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As millions of Ukrainians flee their homes, there has been an outpouring of support from people around the world. One Ukrainian woman in Guatemala has mobilized the online community to help Ukrainians. For VOA News Eugenia Sagastume has the story.
Camera: Eugenia Sagastume
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The United Nations chief said Wednesday that one-quarter of humanity — 2 billion people — are living in conflict areas today and the world is facing the highest number of violent conflicts since 1945, when World War II ended.

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cited conflicts from Yemen, Syria, Myanmar and Sudan to Haiti, Africa’s Sahel, “and now the war in Ukraine — a catastrophe shaking the foundations of the international order, spilling across borders and causing skyrocketing food, fuel and fertilizer prices that spell disaster for developing countries.”

He told the U.N. Peacebuilding Commission on Wednesday that last year 84 million people were forced to leave their homes because of conflict, violence and human rights violations. And that doesn’t include the Ukraine war which has already seen 4 million people flee the country and displaced another 6.5 million within the country, according to U.N. agencies.

Guterres said the U.N. estimates that this year “at least 274 million will need humanitarian assistance.” This represents a 17% increase from 2021 and will cost $41 billion for the 183 million people targeted for aid, according to the U.N. humanitarian office.

Guterres also cited the 2 billion figure of people living in conflict countries in a report to the commission in late January, which said there were a record number of 56 state-based conflicts in 2020. It doesn’t include the Ukraine war, which started with Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion and has affected almost all 40 million people in the country.

The secretary-general told the commission that conflicts are increasing “at a moment of multiplying risks that are pushing peace further out of reach — inequalities, COVID-19, climate change and cyber threats, to name just a few.”

He also pointed to an increase of military coups and seizures of power by force around the world, growing nuclear arsenals, human rights and international law under assault, and criminals and terrorist networks “fueling — and profiting from — divisions and conflicts.”

“The flames of conflict are fueled by inequality, deprivation and underfunded systems,” Guterres said, and these issues must be addressed urgently.

According to his report to the commission, the world is seeing the increasing internationalization of conflicts within countries, and this, together with “the fragmentation and multiplication” of armed groups linked to criminal and terrorist networks, “makes finding solutions arduous,” he said.

Consequently, Guterres said, “there are fewer political settlements to conflicts,” with Colombia a notable exception.

“Over the last decade, the world has spent $349 billion on peacekeeping, humanitarian relief and refugee support, he said. “And global military expenditures rose to nearly $2 trillion in 2020.”

The Peacebuilding Commission has worked to advance peace and prevent conflict in countries including Ivory Coast, Iraq, Africa’s Great Lakes region and Papua New Guinea, the secretary-general said, and the Peacebuilding Fund has grown, investing $195 million last year.

But it relies on voluntary contributions and peacebuilding needs are far outpacing resources, which is why Guterres said he is asking the U.N. General Assembly to assess the U.N.’s 193 member nations a total of $100 million annually for the fund.

“When we consider the costs of war — to the global economy but most of all to humanity’s very soul — peacebuilding is a bargain, and a prerequisite for development and a better future for all,” he said. 
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Two senior British judges resigned from Hong Kong’s highest court on Wednesday as part of a broader British rebuke of the territory’s claim that its courts are independent of political interference.

In a prepared statement released by Lord Robert Reed and his colleague Lord Patrick Hodge, the judges cited the territory’s Beijing-imposed National Security Law (NSL) as central to their decision, which followed discussions with Dominic Raab, the U.K. lord chancellor and justice secretary.

“I have concluded, in agreement with the government, that the judges of the Supreme Court cannot continue to sit in Hong Kong without appearing to endorse an administration which has departed from values of political freedom, and freedom of expression,” said the statement. “Lord Hodge and I have accordingly submitted our resignations as non-permanent judges of the HKCFA with immediate effect.”

Britain, which handed Hong Kong back to China in 1997, has said the security law that punishes offenses like subversion with up to life imprisonment has been used to curb dissent and freedoms. London also says the law is a breach of the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration that paved the way for the handover.

British officials on Wednesday issued comments explaining their decision to withdraw the judges from Hong Kong’s highest court, calling their presence untenable.

“The situation has reached a tipping point, where it is no longer tenable for British judges to sit on Hong Kong’s leading court and would risk legitimizing oppression,” said British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss in a statement. “I welcome and wholeheartedly support the decision to withdraw British judges from the court.”

Raab said, “I thank our judges for being a bastion of international rule of law in Hong Kong over the past 25 years.”

Brian Davidson, the British Consul General to Hong Kong and Macao, also echoed the announcement in a video posted on Twitter.

Hong Kong government officials, however, were quick to respond to the resignations, calling the national security law typical for any country seeking to defend itself. In a harshly worded statement, officials called the British decision “appalling.”

“We take strong exception to the absurd and misleading accusations against the NSL and our legal system,” the statement said. “Every country around the world would take threats to its national security extremely seriously.”

Some observers not surprised

Hong Kong legal and political experts have said the action was expected because rule of law in the city has deteriorated in recent years.

Democracy advocate and political scientist Joseph Cheng told VOA in an email that the decision of the two British judges shouldn’t come as a surprise.

“This is expected as the international community becomes aware of the deteriorations in the rule of law in Hong Kong,” he told VOA. “Western societies know very well that the rule of law can hardly be maintained effectively when freedom of media and civil society are suppressed.

“Within the judiciary, the implementation of the National Security Law has been quite damaging,” added Cheng, who was secretary general of the Civic Party, a pro-democracy liberal political party in Hong Kong, and a member of various pro-democracy groups.

“A special group of judges have been chosen to adjudicate national security law cases, no juries are provided for such cases, and those prosecuted normally cannot seek bail. … The situation is expected to further deteriorate in the near future.”

Eric Yan-Ho Lai, a law analyst and fellow at Georgetown University, wrote on Twitter that the judges’ decisions were “respectable.”

“The resignations of Lord Hodge and Lord Reed from Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appeal are respectable moves in light of the ongoing political suppressions in the city,” he tweeted. “Yet it’s uncertain whether the remaining (Non-Permanent Judges) NPJs, who are retired judges, will follow so.”

He added that the U.K. Supreme Court’s statement “appears to imply the resignations are votes of no confidence to the city’s administration that does not respect political freedom and free speech anymore, and the Court does not want to collaborate with the Hong Kong administration anymore.”

The Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal website, which has yet to be updated, lists 12 overseas non-permanent judges including the departing Lord Hodge and Lord Reed. Judges from Britain, Australia and Canada make up the list.

Chan-Chak Ming, president of the Law Society of Hong Kong, issued a statement to regional media outlets calling the criticism of Hong Kong’s judiciary system “unfair and unfounded.”

Six-month report

Wednesday’s announcement is the latest development in an increasingly strained relationship between Britain’s legal professionals and officials in Beijing.

In December, Britain released a six-month report about Hong Kong that outlined the eroding freedoms that have taken place since the enactment of the security law. The report included the accusation that Hong Kong’s judicial independence was at risk.

But Hong Kong’s chief of justice, Andrew Cheung, hit back in January stating that Hong Kong’s judiciary independence is a “fact.” Hong Kong legal experts disputed that in interviews with VOA.

Former Democratic Party leader Emily Lau hopes the judiciary can remain uncompromised.

“The foreign judges sitting in the Court of Final Appeal as stipulated in the Basic Law has been regarded as a sign of international confidence in the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law in Hong Kong, which is vital to the city as an international financial center,” she told VOA.

“I hope the legal profession and the judiciary can remain independent and professional and can resist pressure from the powerful sectors, to ensure the rule of law, due process and to safeguard the Hong Kong people’s human rights and personal safety.”

Following Hong Kong’s 2019 pro-democracy demonstrations, Beijing implemented the national security law, arguing that it was required to bring stability to the city. Critics, however, point out that the law prohibits secession, subversion, and collusion with foreign forces, criminalizes dissent, and makes it easier to punish protesters and reduces the city’s autonomy.

Under the new law, authorities have waged a political crackdown on dozens of civil society groups and independent media outlets. At least 150 dissidents have been arrested since the law was implemented, including dozens of democratic lawmakers and political figures.

In landmark cases, some dissidents have faced trial without a jury and with specially enlisted national security judges.

British judges have long served among the foreign jurists appointed to Hong Kong’s highest court, an arrangement that London had long described as a way to maintain confidence in the city’s legal apparatus amid Beijing’s tightening political grip on the territory.

Fourteen non-permanent judges remain at the Hong Kong court, including 10 from other common law jurisdictions such as Australia and Canada.

The Hong Kong Bar Association called Britain’s decision “a matter of deep regret” and appealed to the Court of Final Appeal’s remaining overseas judges to stay and serve the city and help uphold its judicial independence.

Some information for this report came from from Reuters and The Associated Press.
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A Ukrainian girl seen singing in a viral video while in a Kyiv bomb shelter is using her newfound fame to help raise money for her homeland. VOA’s Myroslava Gongadze caught up with Amelia Anisovych, 7, and her family in Poland, where they are living as refugees.
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The U.N. high commissioner for human rights on Wednesday called Russia to immediately withdraw its troops from Ukraine and stop the war that she said had caused immeasurable suffering and grief for millions of people.

In a dramatic rendering of conditions in Ukraine to the U.N. Human Rights Council, Michelle Bachelet described the living nightmare Ukrainians have endured for more than a month and said the war must end.

She said at least 1,189 civilians had been killed and 1,900 injured. She said relentless bombing raids and the persistent use of explosive weapons by Russian military forces had caused massive destruction and damage to homes, infrastructure, hospitals and schools. She noted cities such as Mariupol had been nearly razed, while others had been mercilessly pummeled and no longer existed.

Bachelet said her office had credible allegations that Russian armed forces have used cluster munitions in populated areas at least two dozen times. She said her office also was investigating allegations that Ukrainian forces have used such weapons.

“Indiscriminate attacks are prohibited under international humanitarian law and may amount to war crimes,” she said. “The massive destruction of civilian objects and the high number of civilian casualties strongly indicate that the fundamental principles of distinction, proportionality and precaution have not been sufficiently adhered to.”

Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva, Yevheniia Filipenko, condemned Russia’s unprovoked aggression against her country. She called Russia’s actions against a sovereign state an attack against the norms of the world’s rules-based order.

‘Flagrant violation’ of charter

“This step by the country occupying a seat in the U.N. Security Council and in the Human Rights Council has become a flagrant violation of the U.N. charter and fundamental principles of international law, which will have long-lasting implications for the future of the world order and humanity,” she said.

Yaroslav Eremin, first secretary at the Russian Mission in Geneva, dismissed the conclusions of multiple investigative bodies that have found Russia guilty of widespread violations and abuse.

He listed a litany of alleged crimes committed by Ukrainian soldiers. He said these included preventing civilians in Mariupol from seeking safety in Russia, using civilians as human shields, and blowing up a factory and blaming it on Russia. Speaking through an interpreter, he accused the Ukrainian military of torturing Russian prisoners of war and innocent civilians.

“All these atrocities against civilians were carried out with the use of weaponry supplied by the Western countries,” he said. “We urge the high commissioner and OHCHR [Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights] to give a due assessment of these facts.”

Nearly 50 countries that participated in the interactive discussion on Ukraine did not buy into Russia’s viewpoint. One by one they stood up and demanded that Russia stop what they called an illegal war.
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Turkish-made drones have featured prominently in Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s invasion, taking out significant Russian targets in the first few weeks of the war. But the conflict, and any possibility of a Russian victory, have cast a shadow over the future of Turkey’s rapidly growing drone industry, which relies on Ukrainian engines.

In one of many videos released by the Ukrainian military, a Turkish-made Bayraktar drone destroys a Russian tank to the cheers of the drone operators. But with the Bayraktar drone powered by Ukrainian engines, Samuel Bennet of the U.S.-based Center for Naval Analyses warns any Russian victory in Ukraine could set back Turkey’s rapidly growing drone industry.

“Russia sees Bayraktar’s TV2s in particular as a highly competitive weapon and technology not just in the former Soviet space, but in the global aerial vehicle market. Russians are nervous that Bayraktar are penetrating the former Soviet space, the Caucasus and Central Asia and now Ukraine,” Bennet said. “And so, if Russians were to sort of exercise the full extent of their powers in the outcome of the negotiations, they would probably seek to limit Ukrainian military cooperation with Turkey so as not to further Turkish growing advantage in certain technologies like UAVs.”

Ukraine provides cutting-edge engine know-how, and does not put restrictions on Turkish companies selling to third parties. Turkish drone use in conflicts like the Ethiopian civil war has drawn international criticism from rights groups.

James Rogers, assistant professor in War Studies at the University of Southern Denmark, says the Turkish drone industry would not have the same freedom of use if it turned to its Western allies for engines.

“There are more restrictions when you deal with UK, European or American suppliers, and that is something Turkey will definitely keep in mind,” he said. “We know that the United States has been very select to who it sells drones and drone elements to around the world. This was one of the reasons why Turkey started its entire indigenous drone program because Congress wouldn’t approve the sale of Reaper-Predator generation medium altitude long endurance drones to Turkey.”

Earlier this year, a prominent Turkish military helicopter deal with Pakistan collapsed over Washington’s restrictions on the use of American engines. In addition, Congress has been enforcing increased controls on the supplies of military components to Turkey over Ankara’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defense system.

While Ankara has received praise from Washington over its support of Ukraine, Aaron Stein, director of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, expects little change in Washington’s stance towards Turkey.

“One side is that Turkey is hostile to the United States. It’s no longer an ally, it’s (an) adversary. So, we should be treating it as such. And the other side is we misunderstand Turkey, and it needs a big hug because it’s so important. And the government is somewhere in the middle, and usually, current events reinforce positions on either side,” Stein said.

Given the challenges of finding an alternative to Ukrainian engines, Turkey’s drone industry will likely look for drones to thwart Moscow’s ambitions and secure both Kyiv and its future.
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Turkish-made drones have featured prominently in Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s invasion, taking out significant Russian targets in the first few weeks of the war. But the conflict, and any possibility of a Russian victory, have cast a shadow over the future of Turkey’s rapidly growing drone industry, which relies on Ukrainian engines. 

In one of many videos released by the Ukrainian military, a Turkish-made Bayraktar drone destroys a Russian tank to the cheers of the drone operators. But with the Bayraktar drone powered by Ukrainian engines, Samuel Bennet of the U.S.-based Center for Naval Analyses warns any Russian victory in Ukraine could set back Turkey’s rapidly growing drone industry. 

“Russia sees Bayraktar’s TV2s in particular as a highly competitive weapon and technology not just in the former Soviet space, but in the global aerial vehicle market. Russians are nervous that Bayraktar are penetrating the former Soviet space, the Caucasus and Central Asia and now Ukraine,” Bennet said. “And so, if Russians were to sort of exercise the full extent of their powers in the outcome of the negotiations, they would probably seek to limit Ukrainian military cooperation with Turkey so as not to further Turkish growing advantage in certain technologies like UAVs.” 

Ukraine provides cutting-edge engine know-how, and does not put restrictions on Turkish companies selling to third parties. Turkish drone use in conflicts like the Ethiopian civil war has drawn international criticism from rights groups.  

James Rogers, assistant professor in War Studies at the University of Southern Denmark, says the Turkish drone industry would not have the same freedom of use if it turned to its Western allies for engines. 

“There are more restrictions when you deal with UK, European or American suppliers, and that is something Turkey will definitely keep in mind,” he said. “We know that the United States has been very select to who it sells drones and drone elements to around the world. This was one of the reasons why Turkey started its entire indigenous drone program because Congress wouldn’t approve the sale of Reaper-Predator generation medium altitude long endurance drones to Turkey.” 

Earlier this year, a prominent Turkish military helicopter deal with Pakistan collapsed over Washington’s restrictions on the use of American engines. In addition, Congress has been enforcing increased controls on the supplies of military components to Turkey over Ankara’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defense system.

While Ankara has received praise from Washington over its support of Ukraine, Aaron Stein, director of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, expects little change in Washington’s stance towards Turkey. 

“One side is that Turkey is hostile to the United States. It’s no longer an ally, it’s (an) adversary. So, we should be treating it as such. And the other side is we misunderstand Turkey, and it needs a big hug because it’s so important. And the government is somewhere in the middle, and usually, current events reinforce positions on either side,” Stein said. 

Given the challenges of finding an alternative to Ukrainian engines, Turkey’s drone industry will likely look for drones to thwart Moscow’s ambitions and secure both Kyiv and its future.  
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The United Nation’s children’s agency says some 2 million children have fled the fighting in Ukraine, with another 2.5 million driven from their homes within the country.

In a statement released Wednesday, UNICEF, along with the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNCHR), said children make up half of all refugees from the war in Ukraine. UNICEF reports more than 1.1 million children have arrived in Poland, with hundreds of thousands also arriving in Romania, Moldova, Hungary Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

UNCHR has documented that more than 100 children have been killed during the conflict, and an additional 134 children have been injured, though the agency says the true toll is likely to be much higher.

Both U.N. agencies warn that displaced children heighten the risk of trafficking and exploitation. To seek to reduce the risks children and young people face, UNICEF, UNHCR and government and civil society partners are scaling up “Blue Dot” centers in refugee-hosting countries, including Moldova, Romania and Slovakia.

The “Blue Dot” centers are one-stop safe spaces that can provide information to traveling families, help identify unaccompanied and separated children and ensure their protection from exploitation, and serve as a hub for access to essential services.

UNICEF said it is also working urgently with national governments and other authorities across the region to put further measures in place to keep children safe, including strengthening child protection screening at border crossings.

In Wednesday’s statement, UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said, “The situation inside Ukraine is spiraling.” As the number of children fleeing their homes continues to climb, she added, it is important to remember “every single one of them needs protection, education, safety and support.”

This week, UNICEF began a humanitarian cash transfer program to support 52,000 of the most vulnerable families inside Ukraine. In addition, the agency, as of this week, has dispatched 114 trucks carrying 1,275 metric tons of emergency supplies to support children and families in Ukraine and the bordering countries.

The supplies include medicines and medical equipment, winter clothes for children, and hygiene, educational, early childhood development and recreational kits.
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Russia said Wednesday there is still no sign of a breakthrough in peace talks with Ukraine.

Ukraine presented a list of demands Tuesday at the start of negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey aimed at ending the 36-day war, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said during a press briefing. An aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the two sides discussed the terms of a possible cease-fire, along with international security guarantees for Ukraine during Tuesday’s session.

Ukrainian negotiators also proposed that Kyiv would adopt a neutral status in exchange for security guarantees, such as not joining NATO or other military alliances.

Peskov told reporters that Moscow welcomed the fact that Kyiv has presented a written statement of demands, but said Russia has not seen anything promising that would lead to a final agreement.

Meanwhile, local officials in Ukraine say Russian forces have continued artillery attacks on the outskirts of the capital, Kyiv, and the northern city of Chernihiv, despite a vow to reduce operations in those locations as a sign of goodwill.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk earlier Wednesday announced the two sides had agreed to open three evacuation corridors. Vereshchuk said one corridor would be used for the evacuation of the besieged city of Mariupol and delivery of humanitarian aid to Berdyansk, located about 84 kilometers south of Mariupol, another for the delivery of humanitarian aid to – and evacuation from – the city of Melitopol, and a third for a column of people traveling from from Enerhodar to Zaporizhzhia.

Filippo Grandi , the head of the U.N.’s refugee agency, said Wednesday the number of Ukrainians who have fled their native land to escape what he called a “senseless war” has now exceeded 4 million people.

The U.N. says more than half of those who have left Ukraine since the start of the February 24 invasion have headed west into Poland.

Britain’s defense ministry says Russian military units fighting in Ukraine have been forced to return to Russia and Belarus to “reorganize and resupply” after suffering heavy losses fighting Ukrainian forces during the war.

“Such activity is placing further pressure on Russia’s already strained logistics,” the ministry said Wednesday in its latest intelligence report, “and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having reorganizing its units in forward areas within Ukraine.”

The assessment comes a day after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russian troops will focus on the Donbas region in southeastern Ukraine, which includes the Russian-controlled areas of Luhansk and Donetsk. Shoigu claimed the shift in strategy was because Russia had largely accomplished the first stage of its “special military operation,” including degrading Ukraine’s military capacity.

But Britain’s military says Russia’s decision to focus on Luhansk and Donetsk “is likely a tacit admission that it is struggling to sustain more than one significant axis of advance.”

The U.S. State Department issued a new advisory Tuesday urging U.S. citizens either traveling to or residing in Russia to leave the country immediately. The advisory cites a number of factors, including “the potential for harassment against U.S. citizens by Russian government security officials, the singling out of U.S. citizens…by Russian government security officials including for detention,” as well as limited flights into and outside of Russia and the limited ability of the U.S. Embassy there to assist U.S. citizens.

The State Department designated Russia a “Level 4: Do Not Travel” nation on its travel advisory list shortly after the February 24 invasion of Ukraine.
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The invasion of Ukraine thrust its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, into the spotlight. Although many perceived the former actor and comedian as a probable lightweight, he rose to the occasion, capturing the world’s attention when he famously refused a U.S. offer to evacuate the conflict zone, reportedly saying, “The fight is here. I need ammunition, not a ride.”

“I think that will go down in history,” says Kenneth Dekleva, a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. “After two years of a worldwide pandemic where we’ve seen so many failures of leadership, both in authoritarian societies and in democratic societies in the West, Zelenskyy is a breath of fresh air. … Zelenskyy has inspired people, and he’s shown us that good leadership and courage, heroism — these kinds of core values — matter.”

Instead of going into hiding, Zelenskyy has made a point of remaining visible, appearing on social media and in footage released by aides since Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine.

Male leaders often attempt to project strength, masculinity and a sense of being destined to lead, according to Michael Blake, a professor of philosophy, public policy and governance at the University of Washington.

“Zelenskyy appears to be presenting a much more unusual picture of leadership in which his trajectory is not ordained by fate or some sort of political genius. Instead, it’s almost accidental,” says Blake. “His personal style of self-presentation is much less concerned with depicting unusual lack of fear or unusual physical prowess. Instead, he is perfectly willing to own up to being frightened and being occasionally overwhelmed.”

Zelenskyy is also shunning the usual leadership look. He’s put aside his dark suit and tie in favor of an olive-green T-shirt or jacket more associated with soldiers or rebel guerillas.

“I think it’s ultimately a symbol of, ‘I’m here. I’m authentically with you,’ and it’s been incredibly powerful,” says Samuel Hunter, a professor of industrial and organizational psychology at the University of Nebraska at Omaha. “I think he wanted to upset the people in the suits a little bit, to come across as a changemaker, this person that is doing things that other people are unwilling to do.”

Social media appeal

Like Donald Trump before him, Zelenskyy has learned to leverage social media to communicate directly with the masses. Trump broke the mold by cutting out the middleman, including his own spokespeople and the news media, by tweeting directly to his supporters. While Trump primarily used Twitter, Zelenskyy relies on the more visual Instagram platform.

“There was what felt like a direct line from what (Trump) was thinking to what others were seeing and hearing and reading,” Hunter says. “And I think Zelenskyy represents the next data point in that pathway, but it’s very visual and touches with a younger generation in a very compelling and interesting way.”

One of Zelenskyy’s strengths is that he appears to have cross-generational appeal.

“He’s probably someone that multiple generations can connect on in part because not only is he adept at dealing with this sort of social media world and speaks multiple languages and is sort of this Hollywood star per se, but because he’s sticking around in zones that are dangerous,” Hunter says. “The older generations — he’s earning respect from those, as well. I think he spans generations in ways that other leaders have not been able to.”

Zelenskyy isn’t the first former actor to connect with the masses. U.S. President Ronald Reagan was aware of image and presentation due to his acting background. Trump, who starred on a successful reality television show, is also very deliberate in how he presents himself.

“It is, I think, an under-noticed fact that politicians do have a fair amount in common with actors,” Blake says. “I think what’s really different here is that Zelenskyy is changing the role.”

New leadership model

A change that could usher in a new model of democratic leadership.

“When he appeared with unshaven cheeks and bags under his eyes and said, ‘I’m still here.’ Every time he came back to say, ‘I’m still here,’ it’s simply added to the thought that this could, in fact, be a model of leadership that would do the job,” Blake says.

Over the past few years, populism’s message has attracted a growing number of followers. Freedom House, which tracks the number of countries that are democratic, has noted a decline in functional democratic governance every year for the past 20 years.

“Some of this has been a result of the rhetorical strength of populism in a world fraught by fear of the undeserving ‘other’ coming in and undermining your economic status,” Blake says. “People are frightened of a slowdown in economic productivity, of widespread migration undermining cultural integrity. People are just plain frightened, and so, the populist has an easy sell, which is, ‘I’m here, touched by God, to return you to the former glory that was unjustly taken from you.’”

Blake says there hasn’t been a good counternarrative to that other than reasserting democratic platitudes — like the importance of the consent of the governed. But Zelenskyy demonstrates that democratic leadership has the capacity to be morally justified while also rousing people’s emotions.

“The fact that Zelenskyy appeals not just to the head, but to the heart, has been extremely promising, because it indicates that democracy might have rhetorical power as well as intellectual power,” Blake says. “We see someone who is willing to say, ‘This is worth fighting for. This is worth suffering for.’ And people are responding to it.”
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Full developments of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine      
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Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ended Tuesday with both sides stressing the importance of the negotiations and indicating a willingness to compromise.

Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, hosted the fifth round of Ukrainian and Russian peace talks. The Russian delegation described the more than four hours of talks as positive. Speaking to reporters after the talks, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin pledged a reduction in military operations.

To increase mutual trust and aid negotiations, he said, a decision was made to reduce military activity in the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas.

The Russian delegation said further steps on reducing military operations would be discussed on their return to Moscow. Tuesday’s talks focused on Russia’s demand that Ukraine should become neutral and end its aspirations to join NATO. The Ukrainian delegation proposed that eight countries should guarantee its security, including Poland, Israel, and Turkey, in exchange for neutrality.

Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak, speaking to reporters, said international guarantors are key to accepting neutrality.

He said intensive consultations are underway on various issues, the most important of which is agreement on international security guarantees for Ukraine. That agreement, Podolyak added, is necessary to end the war.

The delegations also discussed proposals on the disputed status of the self-proclaimed breakaway republics of Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea, which Russia annexed.

Ukraine demands their return, while Moscow calls for their international recognition as independent states and Crimea as Russian sovereign territory. Among the proposals discussed was that Crimea’s status would be subject to a 15-year consultation period.

But the Ukrainian delegation insisted such a step would only be possible in the event of a complete cease-fire. Expectations had been low ahead of Tuesday’s meeting, but Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu claimed the talks had achieved the most progress since the start of the war.

Analyst Sinan Ulgen said the Ukrainian-Russian negotiations in Istanbul underline the importance of Turkey, which has been careful to maintain good ties with both sides during peace efforts.

“As a result of this balanced policy, Turkey is one of few actors that can play a constructive diplomatic role right now. That diplomatic role can be best described as ‘good office,’ which is more than a facilitator but less than a mediator,” Ulgen saud.

But analysts suggest that a meeting of the Ukrainian and Russian presidents is key to ending the conflict. While Kyiv says it’s ready for such a summit, Moscow insists it would only be possible if there are concrete proposals to discuss. Tuesday’s meeting may turn out to be the first step in that process.
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A decades-old struggle for greater autonomy in the French island of Corsica is gaining new momentum, after Paris said it was open to discussions following the death of an imprisoned Corsican nationalist. Now another French area off the mainland — French Guiana, in South America — is also pushing for greater self-rule.

Top nationalist figures turned out for Yvan Colonna’s funeral last Friday at his ancestral hometown of Cargese, in western Corsica. The former shepherd died after being attacked by an Islamist extremist at a prison in mainland France. Colonna was serving a life sentence for the 1998 assassination of France’s top official in Corsica.

Colonna’s death has sparked some of the most violent demonstrations in years on the Mediterranean island, which is a popular tourist destination. Protesters, many of them young Corsicans, blame the state for not accepting a longstanding nationalist demand to transfer Colonna and his accomplices to a prison in Corsica.

Now, Paris appears to be listening. In a surprise announcement, French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin says the government is open to greater Corsican autonomy. He visited the island earlier this month, holding talks with the ruling nationalists. But in interviews with French media like this one, Darmanin has ruled out full independence for Corsica.

University of Bordeaux Corsican specialist Thierry Dominici told RTL radio that Colonna’s death has been like a spark unleashing pent-up anger and nationalist aspirations of young Corsicans especially. He and others warn of more violent demonstrations to come.

Corsica is not the only place pushing against France’s centralized government. Brittany and Alsace also have nationalist movements — but nowhere near as strong as Corsica’s, where nationalists dominate the local government.

Some of France’s overseas territories, like New Caledonia and Polynesia, have gained various degrees of autonomy over the years, following referendums. Now, apparently inspired by Corsica, lawmakers from another overseas area — French Guiana — are also pushing for more autonomy.

In Corsica, the militant Corsican National Liberation Front movement waged a nearly 40-year armed struggle for the island’s independence, which ended in 2014. Colonna’s assassination of French prefect Claude Erignac was the most serious incident.

Today, many Corsicans do not support full independence. The island’s nationalist leaders are themselves divided, with some supporting more autonomy in areas like fiscal powers — alongside the official recognition of the Corsican language — and hardliners backing full independence.

Candidates for France’s April presidential elections are also divided. Far-right hopeful Marine Le Pen opposes autonomy for Corsica, while a number of leftist candidates support it. A recent IFOP poll finds just over half of all French support an autonomous statute for Corsica.
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The International Committee of the Red Cross reports a misinformation and disinformation campaign is being waged on social media to discredit its humanitarian work in Ukraine.

The Swiss-based organization warns the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine is deepening. It finds the level of death, destruction and suffering inflicted upon the civilian population since Russia invaded the country February 24 abhorrent and unacceptable.

Relentless bombing of the port city of Mariupol has demolished civilian homes and infrastructure. It has displaced tens of thousands of people, depriving them of food, water, and medical care.

Spokesman for the International Committee of the Red Cross Ewan Watson said civilians in Mariupol and other frontline areas are making life and death decisions to flee when there is no agreement that would allow them to leave safely.

He said a surge of misinformation and disinformation is jeopardizing ICRC efforts to protect and distribute humanitarian aid to people trapped by conflict.

“We are seeing deliberate targeted attacks using false narratives and disinformation to discredit the ICRC. And this has the potential to cause real harm for our teams and our Red Cross, Red Crescent movement partners working on the ground and for the people we serve,” he said.

Watson said a huge flow of misinformation and disinformation is being orchestrated across social media channels targeting the ICRC. For example, one claim that has no basis in truth, he said is the agency’s alleged role in forced evacuations.

“The ICRC has not been involved with any forced evacuation, forced transfers of civilians into Russia from Mariupol or any other Ukrainian city…The ICRC does not want to open an office in southern Russia to filter Ukrainians as many reports are alleging. So, that is absolutely false. We are not opening a refugee camp or any other type of camp,” said the spokesman for the ICRC.

Watson said the ICRC operates on the basis of impartiality and neutrality. He said it expects the warring parties to fulfill their obligations under International Humanitarian Law to protect civilians and limit military operations to exclusively military objectives.
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“Everyone is hoping for some kind of conspiracy at the top — that one of Vladimir Putin’s close associates or oligarchs will kill him,” says popular Russian blogger and longtime Kremlin critic Dmitry Chernyshev. “But it seems to me that will not be a solution,” he adds.

Instead, Chernyshev, a 55-year-old writer and lecturer, is calling on Russians to join a National Resistance movement he’s setting up and is encouraging wide-ranging civil disobedience going well beyond street protests. He says armed resistance and sabotage will be needed to overthrow the Russian leader.

That marks him out from other Kremlin critics and opposition figures as they struggle to map out a way forward to continue to challenge Putin.

This week a group of veteran Russian human rights and political activists agreed to set up an anti-war council and to focus their efforts on opposing the invasion of Ukraine. They are preparing an open letter calling on Russia to end its war on Ukraine, in which they will declare it “our common duty” to “stop the war [and] protect the lives, rights and freedoms of all people, both Ukrainians and Russians.”

The soon-to-be-published manifesto will be signed by a dozen opposition luminaries, including Lev Ponomaryov, Oleg Orlov and Svetlana Gannushkina. Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader, who was sentenced to an additional nine years in prison earlier this week, has also called on Russians to attend anti-war protests.

But speaking to VOA, Chernyshev, who fled to Israel after his family was threatened by authorities and is trying to establish from Tel Aviv a movement to oust Russia’s leader, says more is needed and his strategy is broader. He says it won’t help Russia, if there’s “just a transfer of power from one hand to another.”

Russia will be as badly off if Putin is replaced by someone like Viktor Zolotov, the head of Russia’s National Guard, or Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, he says. “It seems to me that the security forces have committed so many crimes that they will not give up power by peaceful means,” he warns.

Opposition exodus

Russia’s dissidents and rights activists say they are now living through the darkest period they have encountered since the end of communism. Tens of thousands of Russians have fled the country since the February 24 invasion of Ukraine, fearing that if they didn’t do so they would end up in jail.

Their departure will further weaken opposition to Putin and make mass revolt even more unlikely, fear some activists, and has been compared by some to the flight of the White Army from Crimea in November 1920, when around 165,000 people fled Russia in three days. Estimates for the current exodus run as high as 200,000.

The White Army and its supporters fled because of defeat by the Bolsheviks on the battlefield and while there has been no clash of arms in Russia now, there is also a widespread sense of defeat. “The opposition has been crushed, chased into exile or underground,” according to Ben Noble, a professor of Russian politics at University College London.

The screws have been tightened on anti-war activists and Kremlin critics, who are facing increasing repression, including police beatings, intimidation, work dismissals and other threats. Around 150 journalists have fled Russia, and one of the country’s last remaining influential independent news outlets, Novaya Gazeta, announced this week that it will cease operations until the end of the war in Ukraine after it received a second warning from the state censor.

Political activists expect the search for internal enemies to blame for the country’s descent into sanction-induced economic hardship will only get worse for them. Putin has called for the country to purify itself of fifth columnists and traitors.

Fomenting uprising

In these circumstances Chernyshev says there is little option but to foment an uprising. In a recent Facebook post, he published a manifesto for national resistance, in which he called for a rebellion. “The Resistance Movement is announcing preparations to overthrow the criminal Putin regime,” the manifesto began.

“We will use all methods, including the right of people to an uprising. It is the citizens’ inalienable right to protect their rights and freedom from usurpers through any means, including armed struggle. We have exhausted all peaceful means: we organized rallies — they were dispersed. Ran honest media reports — they were banned. Led an open political struggle — the oppositionists were killed, imprisoned, exiled from the country, and were tried to be poisoned,” the manifesto continued.

One of Chernyshev’s role models is Charles de Gaulle, the wartime French leader. “I am very inspired by the example of de Gaulle, who had nothing, no army, no soldiers. He called on the French to resist,” says Chernyshev. “When France was defeated by Germany in 1940, de Gaulle commanded an army that did not exist. But gradually these armies appeared when it seemed that everything had already been lost. Gradually, a resistance movement began to form,” he adds.

He wants to target judges and security officials who prop up Putin’s rule in a bid to demoralize them and make them feel vulnerable. “It is one thing when they are sure that they are hidden and no one knows anything about them, and quite another when their names and addresses are made public.” He doesn’t detail what he hopes will happen to these officials, but he mentions “sabotage.”

Chernyshev has been an active Kremlin critic for years. He has had a series of jobs since leaving the Russian army after serving as a conscript. He has worked as a security guard, a driver, and a guide for hunters before studying design and graphic art, eventually becoming a creative director for an advertising agency. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea, his blog became one of the most-read in the country.

“Before the 2014 elections, I declared a personal vendetta against Putin,” he says. He attended pro-Navalny rallies and was detained once for 15 days. “When the invasion started, I wrote harsh posts against the war,” he says. He was arrested and taken to Lubyanka, the headquarters of the domestic FSB intelligence agency, where “they interrogated me very harshly for three hours,” he says.

“They wanted me to sign a document swearing allegiance to Putin and other nonsense. Of course, I did not sign the document, but in order to have time to get my children out of Russia, I promised to stop my activities on the Internet. I have four children and the threats were serious. They promised to send me in a freight train to Donetsk and tie me to a pole as a looter, so that the people would deal with me,” he explains. “If it were not for the threats to [my] children, I would have stayed in Russia,” he says. He sold everything he could and flew on March 15 with his family to Israel.

Other political activists believe the circumstances are not right for the kind of national resistance Chernyshev hopes to foment. They say Putin has prepared for years to see off any “color revolution” that emerges. Others point to polls suggesting the Russian leader has support for his invasion of Ukraine.

Chernyshev dismisses the criticism. “Everyone who has conducted surveys knows that 9 out of 10 people interviewed on the street refuse to answer. People receive calls on their home phones and ask if they support government activities. People are afraid to answer truthfully and, of course, say they say they support. I am sure that Putin’s rating is at an extremely low level. I urge you not to believe in the results of the polls,” he says.

And he believes food riots will start to emerge when the economic hardship brought on by Western sanctions worsens. “I may be wrong but doing nothing in such a situation seems like a betrayal to me,” he says.
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